FIERCE rivals Hawthorn and Essendon will lock horns for the second time this season at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
A win for the Hawks could propel them into the top four, while a victory for the Bombers would help them keep pace with the top eight.
The form
Hawthorn – WWW
After an up-and-down start to the season, Hawthorn has finally found some consistency in terms of results, winning its past three games.
Two wins before the bye – by 53 points over Gold Coast Suns and 63 points against St Kilda – were followed by a 29-point triumph against Adelaide Crows on Thursday night.
Essendon - LLL
With a win-loss record of 4-7 after 11 matches, the Bombers will be looking to secure a win.
They will return from the bye on the back of three defeats – to Richmond, Geelong and West Coast.
Recent history
Who could forget Essendon’s thrilling two-point win against the Hawks in Round 2?
A late goal to Cale Hooker sunk the Hawks, with the siren preventing Luke Breust from kicking a match-winning major.
Hawthorn won last year’s clash – again a nail-biter – by just two points, and has won five of the past six contests between the clubs.
Ins and outs
Hawthorn
Defender Grant Birchall has been declared fit and available for selection after missing the Hawks’ past three matches.
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The coaches are sure to have some tough decisions to make at the selection table this week, with the likes of Ben McEvoy, Matt Spangher, Will Langford, Alex Woodward and James Sicily featuring prominently at VFL level.
Key forward Jack Gunston dislocated a finger against Adelaide Crows on Thursday night, but is expected to be available.
Essendon
A number of changes have been forecast for the Bombers.
Travis Colyer and Tom Bellchambers will be sidelined with stress fracture injuries, while Heath Hocking is set to return from injury through the VFL.
Ruckmen Shaun McKernan and Jonathan Giles will compete for a senior berth, while David Zaharakis, Jason Winderlich, Courtenay Dempsey and Jason Merrett could be in contention.
Defender Dustin Fletcher is considered a slim chance of overcoming a groin injury.
Key players
Hawthorn
Tackle pressure was an important factor in Hawthorn’s win against the Crows last round and will no doubt be important against the Bombers on Saturday.
Uncompromising midfielder Liam Shiels is a tackling machine, averaging 7.7 tackles per game, and collecting eight tackles against the Crows alongside Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo.
The Hawks midfield continues to share the load, with the likes of Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne and Shiels having an impact against the Crows, while key forwards Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston were held goalless last week and will be motivated to hit the scoreboard against the Bombers.
Essendon
Key defenders Michael Hurley and Cale Hooker have been strong contributors for the Bombers this year.
The duo averages almost 40 disposals and 15 marks between them per match, highlighting their importance in the air and rebounding from defence.
Midfielders Jobe Watson and Brendon Goddard will also be critical if the Bombers are to win the midfield battle.
Goddard averages 26.6 disposals per match this season, and Watson 26 disposals per match.
Important factors
The ruck situation
Essendon went without a specialist ruckman in its most recent game, a move that backfired against West Coast’s Nic Naitanui.
Expect the Bombers to bring in either Shaun McKernan or Jonathan Giles to shoulder the bulk of the ruck duties on Saturday, after forwards Jake Carlisle, Pat Ambrose and Joe Daniher shared the load against the Eagles.
The Bombers are ranked 15th for hitouts this year and will come up against some in-form Hawks ruckmen – with Jon Ceglar and David Hale both having an impact against Adelaide.
Ben McEvoy will also be pushing for selection after a strong performance at VFL level.
Kicking a winning score
Essendon will be looking for more output around goal on Saturday after a few quiet weeks on the scoreboard.
The Bombers have managed just six, seven and eight goals against West Coast, Geelong and Richmond respectively.
It’s a trend the Hawks’ experienced backline – which gets better by the week as key talls Brian Lake, Josh Gibson and James Frawley build their on-field relationship – will be eager to maintain.
How important is winning the clearances?
Hawthorn’s clearance work has been among the best in the business this season.
The Hawks are ranked third for clearances per match, as opposed to the Bombers, who are ranked 16th.
But that stat mattered little when these sides last met in Round 2, with the Hawks dominating the clearance count 49-29, but going down by two points.
Despite winning the ball around the stoppages, the Hawks were beaten by the Bombers in terms of disposals and disposal efficiency.
It’s something they will be eager to rectify on Saturday.
