Every point matters as we enter the final six rounds of this year’s home and away season.
As the ladder stands ahead of Round 18, if the side that ranks higher on the current standings is successful in each of the final 54 match-ups of the home and away season, Hawthorn will finish ninth, outside of the eight by a measly 0.2%.
Read: Key match ups in Round 18
When we conducted the same test a month ago, the Hawks projected to finish sixth.
But following unpredicted losses to the GWS Giants and the Brisbane Lions, a finals berth is now a more difficult assignment.
The Hawks currently sit in 10th position on the ladder, having won the same amount of games as the eighth-placed Geelong and ninth-placed North Melbourne.
Hawthorn’s run home over the final six rounds includes four opponents who currently reside in the bottom eight of the ladder.
These are Carlton this weekend, Fremantle the following week and Essendon and St Kilda in Rounds 20 and 22 respectively.
The two more challenging match ups come in the form of a Round 21 MCG blockbuster against Geelong in Round 21 and Sydney in Sydney in the final fixture of the home and away season.
As important as wins will be, percentage also figures as a key influence in the race for those final spots in the eight.
Among the other talking points of this hypothetical pattern of results: Richmond and West Coast would finish in the top two, both two games clear of the third-placed Magpies.
While Carlton would obviously fail to win another game, instead “winning” their second wooden spoon in four years.
For Hawthorn fans, it is simple.
A win this week against Carlton is a non-negotiable as Alastair Clarkson aims to lead his side to a 10th final series in 12 years.
And from then, let's just cross our fingers and hope for some upsets.
If every team beats the teams below them and loses to the teams above them for the remainder of the season, here's what the final tally will look like:
